US Spirits Will Still Be Contracting at -3.68% in Q2 2027. Germany Is Proposing a 20% Tax Increase on Top. The Distribution Tier Has Just Been Restructured. Here Is What It Means.

Three things were confirmed in the same news cycle today. The Wine and Spirits Wholesalers of America published a forward forecast showing US core spirits depletions at –4.19% in Q1 2026 and improving only to –3.68% by Q2 2027. Germany’s Finance Ministry proposed a 20% spirits excise tax increase from 2027 in a market where taxed spirits volumes had already fallen 23.1% in 2025. And Columbia Distributing completed its acquisition of RNDC’s Oregon and Washington operations, the latest step in the largest restructuring of the US wine and spirits distribution tier in a generation. Each of these developments is significant on its own. Together, they describe a commercial environment for spirits brands in 2026 and 2027 that is confirmed as more structurally challenging – not less – than the one they are currently navigating.

The demand picture: confirmed negative through Q2 2027