- This guide is for brand managers, strategy leads, and marketing teams at drinks producers navigating a market where category volumes are declining. It applies whether you work on spirits, wine, beer, or adjacent categories, and whether your brand is a large group label or an independent.
- What it covers: an honest read of where the market is in 2026, with primary data from IWSR and WSWA; why the standard response to category decline (premiumise harder) is no longer sufficient; the four strategic approaches brands are actually using to grow through a declining category; and specific actions your team can take in the next 90 days.
- What it does not cover: financial restructuring, M&A decisions, or supply chain management – this guide focuses on brand and commercial strategy. For producers navigating the US distribution landscape specifically, see our earlier guide on US spirits distribution.
- Primary sources: IWSR global data release June 2026 (theiwsr.com); IWSR premiumisation stalls analysis April 2026 (theiwsr.com); IWSR H1 2025 data release November 2025; WSWA SipSource Q2 2026 (wswa.org, August 2026); Kantar BrandZ 2026 alcohol report; Brewers Association 2025 craft beer data; Diageo CMD press release August 2026; Campari H1 2026 primary results; Treasury Wine Estates FY2026 primary results.
Total beverage alcohol volumes declined for the third consecutive year in 2025. Beer fell. Wine fell further. Spirits fell. The only major category that grew was RTDs. IWSR’s Marten Lodewijks described it plainly: “The global beverage alcohol market is undergoing a major reset.” That reset is not a temporary dip caused by post-pandemic normalisation or a single market’s economic weakness. It is a multi-year structural shift affecting every major category in every major market simultaneously.
The question for brand teams in 2026 is not whether the market is declining – the data is unambiguous on that – but what to do while it is. The strategies that worked in the 2010s were built for a different environment: sustained premiumisation, growing consumer confidence, expanding on-trade occasions, and a consumer base willing to pay more for quality. That environment is gone, at least for now. The strategies that work in 2026 require a different set of decisions.
The market in 2026 – the data that actually matters
The category-level data tells a consistent story. Beer volumes fell 2% globally in 2025. Wine fell 5% – below spirits in total volume for the first time. Spirits fell 3% including national spirits (baijiu, shochu), and 1% excluding them. The US saw spirits volumes fall 5% in 2025 following a 4% decline in 2024. WSWA SipSource confirmed US combined wine and spirits depletions were still running at -6.5% in the 12 months to June 2026, though the rate of decline narrowed for the third consecutive month.
The more commercially significant data point is the value decline. TBA value fell for the first time since 2020, according to IWSR, with spirits especially impacted. This means premiumisation – the strategy of selling fewer but more expensive bottles – is no longer sufficient to offset volume losses. The consumer who was previously willing to upgrade has started holding their price point or stepping down. Spiros Malandrakis of Euromonitor described what is happening as “structural changes, not cyclical ones.” That distinction matters for how your brand plans its next three years.
Why the standard playbook is not working
The drinks industry’s response to volume pressure over the past decade has been consistent: trade the consumer up. Sell fewer bottles at higher prices. Invest in super-premium and ultra-premium tiers. Let the lower end of the portfolio manage itself. This worked when consumer confidence was high and the aspiration to drink better was a strong motivator. It is working less well now for three interconnected reasons.
First, the consumer who was trading up has started to trade sideways or down. The US tequila market is the most visible example – the super-premium tier (above $50) is contracting while the mainstream tier holds up better. SipSource confirmed core US spirits fell 5.7% in value in the 12 months to March 2026, with depremiumisation cited as a driver across price tiers including tequila. The brand that bet its entire strategy on the consumer moving up the price ladder is now competing in a shrinking segment against more well-resourced competitors.
Second, the consumer who stayed in the mainstream has started drinking less frequently rather than simply buying cheaper. IWSR’s research shows the decline in servings – actual drinking occasions – has been sharper than the volume data alone suggests. A consumer who drinks four times per week instead of five has changed their consumption pattern without necessarily changing what they buy. That is a frequency problem, not a price problem, and it requires a different strategic response.
Third, the occasions that generated the highest drinking frequency – going out to bars and restaurants, attending events, socialising in groups – have structurally shifted. The UK on-premise is still navigating cost pressures that have reduced consumer visits, despite the 20% business rates cut confirmed for pubs in July 2026. The US on-premise is similarly constrained. Cost of living pressures are not going away in the near term, and the marketing strategy built around driving on-premise trial as the primary consumer recruitment mechanism requires rethinking.
Four approaches that are actually working – with primary evidence
- -Daily coverage
- -Market and category analysis
- -Financial results coverage
- -Practical industry guides
- -Interviews
- -Monthly intelligence briefing