Scotch whisky: the US is losing ground, India is the growth market, and the category is premiumising by attrition

Scotch whisky exported £5.36 billion worth of product in 2025. Three years earlier, that figure was £5.6 billion. The category has lost 4.3% of its export volume and is navigating trade headwinds on multiple fronts simultaneously: a 10% US tariff that took effect in April 2025, softer consumer demand across mature Western markets, a UK domestic duty burden that increased more than 17% in three years, and a restructuring of which global markets actually matter. The Scotch Whisky Association describes the situation as “significant challenges across multiple markets.” What that summary obscures is how differently those challenges play out across geographies – and where the real opportunities lie for brands willing to look past the headline numbers.

India is now Scotch whisky’s third-largest export market by value and its largest by volume. It grew 15% in both value and volume in 2025. The UK-India FTA, signed May 2025 and in force from July 2026, has cut the import tariff from 150% to 75% immediately, with a path to 40% over ten years. The SWA projects this could add £1 billion in exports over five years. Meanwhile, the US – the category’s most valuable market – has just experienced its steepest quarterly volume decline in years under a 10% tariff that the SWA estimates costs the industry £4 million a week. These two markets are moving in opposite directions, and the commercial decisions that follow from that divergence are significant for any brand with meaningful Scotch exposure.

The headline numbers – and what sits underneath them