The New Distribution Tier: What the US Market Actually Looks Like After RNDC, and What It Requires from Brands

The conventional read on the RNDC dissolution has been fragmentation. A major distributor exits. Multiple smaller distributors absorb the pieces. More competition, more options for brands, a more level playing field. The data tells a different story. When the transactions announced between January and May 2026 complete, the US wine and spirits distribution tier will be more concentrated than the one it replaced. The question for every brand currently navigating the transition is not the same question it was twelve months ago.

Twelve months ago the question was: which distributor should we use? Today the question is: are we a priority brand for a distributor that now has significantly more market power? These are not the same question. The answer to the second one determines everything that follows.

What actually happened, and in what order

The RNDC dissolution did not begin in 2026. It began in early 2023, when Sazerac terminated its long-standing partnership with RNDC after the distributor allegedly defaulted on $38.6 million in invoices for Sazerac products. Sazerac moved its portfolio – Buffalo Trace, Pappy Van Winkle, Fireball, and others – to Reyes Beverage Group in California and other markets. At the time it appeared to be a single supplier dispute rather than a structural signal. It was the first crack in what became a systematic dismantling.