Tequila in 2026: the US market has stalled, the super-premium tier is contracting, and the growth is somewhere else entirely

For a decade, tequila was one of the simplest growth stories in spirits: volumes up, values up, shelf space expanding, and a queue of celebrity launches behind every new product. Between 2019 and 2025, global tequila volumes grew at a compound annual rate of 6%, according to IWSR’s 2026 global data release – outperforming virtually every other spirit category in a market that was, for much of that period, declining overall.

That story has changed. US volumes – which account for more than two-thirds of global tequila consumption – were flat in 2024–25 and are forecast to dip slightly in 2026. The world’s largest tequila producer by volume, Becle (owner of Jose Cuervo), recorded net sales declining 13.9% in Q2 2026 and ended its partnership with its primary US distributor. Agave prices have collapsed from a peak of approximately MXN 30–32 per kilogram in 2021 to MXN 2–5 per kilogram today – a decline of roughly 85–90% – as the plantings of the boom years reached maturity simultaneously. The phrase that kept appearing in analyst notes, trade commentary, and earnings calls through 2025 and into 2026: “too early to tell if tequila is seeing normalisation.”

This piece maps what the data actually says – which tiers are growing, which are contracting, where the new volume is coming from, and what the agave supply situation means for brand owners and commercial teams building or managing tequila positions in 2026 and beyond.

The US picture: flat headline, sharp divergence underneath

The US tequila market’s flat 2025 performance is the headline, but it is the tier-level breakdown that contains the commercially relevant information. Three things are happening simultaneously, and they point in different directions depending on where a brand sits in the price architecture.

Ultra-premium – broadly the tier above $50 per bottle at retail – is the only segment growing strongly. Volumes in this tier rose 7% in 2024–25, capping a 31% compound annual growth rate since 2019. Its share of total US tequila volumes has nearly tripled, from 6% in 2019 to 17% in 2025, and IWSR forecasts it will reach 21% of US volumes by 2030. The consumer dynamics driving this are well documented: a growing cohort of tequila enthusiasts who research production methods, follow distilleries, and treat the category with the same consideration previously reserved for whisky or wine. Don Julio 1942, Clase Azul, and the expanding añejo and extra añejo tier are the commercial expression of this consumer segment.

Super-premium – broadly the $30–$50 tier – is contracting sharply. Volumes fell 6% in 2024–25 and IWSR forecasts a further compound annual decline of 5% through to 2030. This is the tier most exposed to the combination of consumer value consciousness, category saturation, and the aftermath of the celebrity launch wave. Hundreds of brands entered this tier between 2019 and 2024, many with limited distribution infrastructure, undifferentiated positioning, and marketing budgets built on social media attention rather than commercial presence. The consolidation happening in this tier is accelerating.

Premium – broadly $15–$30 – grew 1% in 2025 and IWSR notes this may signal that the category’s sweet spot is shifting toward accessible premium products as consumers trade down from the super-premium tier rather than exiting tequila altogether. If that thesis is correct, the accessible premium tier becomes the most contested space in US tequila over the next two to three years.

The shelf space data from IWSR is the most direct available confirmation of how crowded the category has become. 2,500 registered trademarks. 900 brands with any real commercial presence. 500 that generate more than $10,000 in large retail annually. This is not a category where a new entrant can rely on tequila’s growth momentum to lift a poorly differentiated product. The brands growing in this environment are the ones that have built specific distribution presence, specific occasion identity, or specific consumer differentiation – not the ones that have launched on the assumption that “tequila is growing so we should be in tequila.”